How to Prepare for the 10 Key Drivers of Disruption

Einstein compared life to riding a bicycle: to keep balanced you must keep moving. However, inertia can make us oblivious to change. Disruption requires new mindsets to challenge the inertia of established assumptions. To drive change, we must avoid being caught off guard.

Metatrends or metaruptions?

In his 1982 book Megatrends, John Naisbitt defined megatrends as large, transformative processes with global reach and dramatic impact. Megatrends are high-level driving forces of broad changes to society, perceived as relatively certain and fixed.

Similarly, metatrends are beyond individual evolutions; they represent a transformative global impact from a confluence of drivers. The prefix “meta” represents a higher level of abstraction. These might be global shifts in economics, geostrategy, warfare, government and energy.

While the definitions of trends, megatrends or metatrends are subjective, trend reports have common features. First, they extrapolate history towards the future. Second, even when unrelated, trends are presented as interacting predictably with each other. Third, trend analysis does not account for higher-order consequences.

Extrapolating trends is dangerous, especially when they compound flawed assumptions. With time, assumptions magnify; wrong assumptions cascade and blow up. The greater the pace of change, the harder it may be to understand the long-term trajectory of a metatrend from looking in the rearview mirror.

In contrast to trends, disruptions are discontinuous. They acknowledge futures that establish new paradigms, which may evolve in unexpected ways. The inability to understand the initial impact is why disruption becomes apparent only in hindsight.

Metaruptions drive systemic disruption

A metaruption - an abbreviation of disruption with the prefix “meta” - is a multidimensional family of systemic disruptions that cause widespread, self-perpetuating effects, including shifts in the notion of disruption itself. They are characterized by the dynamic interactions of subordinate drivers of change.

As initial changes spill over, the impacts of metaruptions combine to modify other elements, ultimately disrupting the disruption itself.

Metaruptions defy rulebooks. We must envision the questions to be asked - and delve into the questions behind the questions. They require adaptive problem-finding amidst incomprehensibility. Learning to speak the language of metaruptions means staying engaged as paradigms shift.

Metaruptions and the 10 drivers of disruption

By understanding and leveraging the metaruptions at play, we can use their power for new beginnings. In Disrupt With Impact, we decipher their fundamental drivers, in order to inform decision-making.

We consider five metaruptions, fueled by 10 drivers of disruption:

Metaruption #1: New Change

The new nature, velocity, multiplicity and interconnectivity of disruptions generate a runaway pace of change. Despite the inevitable turbulence, this (i) New Nature of Change also unlocks novel pathways to address global challenges.

Metaruption #2: Hyper Premium on Relevancy

As exemplified by the (ii) Red Queen Race, the bar to become and remain relevant is higher than ever. You need to run faster to stay in the same place. Even if you do, you could still end up behind.

In 1871, Lewis Carroll published Through the Looking-Glass. Simultaneously, the scientific world began to understand the ramifications of Darwin’s natural selection. The Red Queen Theory is named for Carroll’s royal character who states that “It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place”. This theory is no different today. Embracing new imperatives allows you to establish and sustain relevance.

Metaruption #3: Irreversibility

However beneficial certain technological developments might be, evolutions in (iii) Climate, (iv) Technology and (v) AI could advance to such a degree that their impact on society is irreversible. Given that these have exponential profiles, their outcomes create larger effects faster than expected. If we are not timely in our anticipatory decisions and mitigation, any transformative developments may quickly - and inadvertently - become irreversible.

Metaruption #4: Systemic Paradigm Shifts

Today, our current paradigms are shifting. (vi) Complexity is moving to centre stage, as nonlinearity prevails. Likewise, the evolving expectations of (vii) Society intersect with shifting values. (viii) Information becomes uncontrollable and evolves with exploding connectivities.

Complexity, society and information are defining systemic paradigm shifts. As complexity is the norm, so is uncertainty; in this environment, humility, curiosity and a questioning mind may be more effective than “mastering” preconceived solutions. Here, addressing individual parts of a problem will not resolve anything.

Metaruption #5: Rapidly Approaching New Eras

The shadows of new realities are fast approaching. (ix) Quantum Computing and Artificial Life could usher in a new epoch of existence. (x) New Frontiers, Geopolitical and Economic Reshuffling transform space, geopolitics and world economies.

We are in the early stages of understanding how quantum computers could be useful. Quantum could allow infinite simulations, experiments, and tests - ushering in countless breakthroughs. Simultaneously, biotechnology, nanotechnology, AI and robotics will dramatically enhance human capabilities, while gene-editing technologies correct genetic defects, blurring the line between human and technology.

To survive surprises: Widen the aperture, multiply lenses

Disruption is not sporadic; it’s now our constant reality. With metaruptions, the degree of surprise we face depends on our mindset toward change. An anticipatory mindset with critical thinking diminishes astonishment for any potentiality. According to the wisdom of Seneca: “The man who has anticipated the coming of troubles takes away their power when they arrive.”

Metaruptions shatter what we consider normal. In times of radical change, our understanding of the world must evolve; otherwise, we risk perpetual surprise.

How can we prepare for something that could always surprise us?

● Anticipate more by gaining perspective.

● Explore with curiosity sooner rather than later.

● Initiate the change yourself by exercising agency.

● Respond promptly and adapt when disruption arrives.

Ultimately, disruption’s impact hinges on three factors: your perspective, your preparedness and the effectiveness of your timely response.