Disruption Has Always Existed

The definition of disruption fluctuates depending on its usage. In Silicon Valley business jargon, disruption means radical, technology-driven change to an industry. In science, disruptions are “paradigm shifts,” but in-game strategy, they’re called “metagame shifts.” Colloquially, disruption might be called a rebirth, reset or renaissance. However, despite that disruption is one of the most used and abused terms, its true meaning remains unclear. Our understanding of disruption has not kept pace with the ever-evolving nature of change.

In Disrupt With Impact, we look at disruption through unique lenses. Not only are business incumbents being disrupted - but our institutions and humanity’s relevance are as well. Systemic disruption - the cascade of constant disruptions across our hyperconnected world - forces us to confront unpredictability. The Covid-19 pandemic served as a stark example and was followed by further spillover crises. Even the technological realm isn’t immune. The CrowdStrike incident underlines how a single oversight can trigger major disruptions - despite the absence of complex AI interactions or malicious intent. Systemic disruption is being acutely felt everywhere today.

This is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the world’s inherent unpredictability. Any one event - or an intersecting confluence of changes - can rewrite the world’s economic landscape. Events presented as “historic” or “unique” are becoming commonplace. In this environment where “unprecedented” becomes the norm, our understanding of the world must evolve.

Systemic disruption obliterates rules

Today, we are faced with profound questions about the fundamental features of our world. These go beyond the cyclical ruptures experienced in the 20th century. Exponential technologies are cascading at a runaway pace. Unlike previous eras, the velocity and interconnectivity of today’s disruptions are self-reinforcing.

Unfortunately, many of us act on flawed assumptions, such as believing that the world is predictable, comprehensible and linear. While the costs of assuming a stable world are increasing, disruption creates space for novelty and sustainable value creation.

The duality and opportunity of disruption

Along our path - from writing around 3,400 BCE, the printing press in 1440, the telegraph in 1830, the smartphone in 2007, to 25% of the world on the Internet in 2009 doubling to 50% in 2018 - we discern a pattern: the rate of change is increasing. On this accelerating, exponentiating curve, each disruption arrives closer than the last. This isn’t a mere excavation of history - it’s the stark observation that we are in an era of constant compounding change.

From the dawn of civilization to the exploration of space, each advancement is a testament to the self-reinforcing effects of innovation. As this exponential curve steepens, it becomes even more critical to not just observe, but actively participate in shaping the future.

The single most dangerous mistake is looking at disruption as isolated episodic events. The complex network of forces that drive disruption reinforces the diversity of perspectives, problems and responses.

Updating VUCA

The tensions and contradictions of our world are often referred to as VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity). However, there are two additional features that define today’s world better, ignored by those who rely on VUCA.

The missing features are “Intersecting,” which defines the interplay of cascading impacts, and “Exponential,” the shape of change in our hyperconnected lives. These intersections and exponentiality are not inherently good or bad; they are updated drivers for our changing operating environments.

In VUCA, “U” stands for uncertain and “A” for ambiguous. Together, these elements articulate that the field of behaviour is confusing and that the agents lack “knowledge”. This UNknown environment increases uncertainty. In recognizing our UNknown, Volatile, Intersecting, Complex and Exponential (UN-VICE) world, we have the power to shape our own futures without having to rely on previous solutions (or ad-vice).

Framing the dynamics of change as UN-VICE provides an empowering response beyond VUCA. We are not helpless victims buffeted by changes, unable to make decisions:

• UNknown: Uncertainty becomes our comfort zone. You can’t know anything perfectly and many decisions are based on assumptions. Increased uncertainty requires self-reliance. Learn how to respond regardless of the lack of precedents.
• Volatile: Harness change for gain. Our world, and change itself, is evolving faster than ever before. Be aware of and harness volatility for gain.
• Intersecting: Everything connects to everything else.The broader our lens, the greater the insights gained from realizing how boundaries are disappearing.
• Complex: Notice emergent properties and adapt. In complex environments, inputs do not map clearly to outputs. Practitioners must acknowledge emergent properties and reconcile the immediate with the indefinite.
• Exponential: Pay attention to nonlinear change. Notice rapid acceleration of seemingly small shifts.

Advice is becoming less replicable

In Zen Mind, Beginner’s Mind, Master Suzuki Roshi said “In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert’s there are few.” Our UN-VICE draws from the three stages of the Japanese martial arts concept shuhari. In the first stage, shu, students master established fundamentals. In the second stage, ha, learners experiment with novel approaches. In the third stage, ri, they break loose from confining rulebooks to adapt freely to any situation. Shuhari is a journey, a continuous process of learning, experimenting and letting go.

The third stage of shuhari is the hardest but most important in our imminent future. No external structures can replace your knowledge and perspectives. You’ll have to learn and adapt for yourself.

We are faced with novel challenges for which there may be no established experts. The deeper the uncertainties, the greater the divergences of existing views.

Not knowing is uncomfortable. We humans like to verify everything. We crave certainty. Enduring the unresolved can be distressing. Yet, we can harness this unpredictability to drive original responses. The permission to wander around, imagine, ask questions and challenge assumptions makes the magic happen. Our UN-VICE is to appreciate the unknowability of the world with a humble beginner’s mind.